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Does the world facing a wheat shortage this year?
Recently, analysts have made comments about the fact that the world is facing a wheat shortage this year by reviewing statistics and key factors, and we have mentioned a few of them here. Let's see if wheat has really become a sexy crop this year. A series of supply side threats is making things exciting for grain traders, but not so much for consumers. Stephen Nicholson, global grains and oilseeds strategist for Rabobank, says that crops are withering in the fields in Canada, the U.S., Argentina, and the European Union. Conditions in Australia are also not looking good, and El Nino could be wreaking havoc in India and Southeast Asia. In addition, China has quality problems due to harvest rains, Reuters reported. All of this is leading to concerns that the global wheat crop may not be as big as everyone thinks it is going to be. Markets Farm analyst Bruce Burnett agrees. He notes that, the USDA is predicting about 54.7 million tons of wheat are stored with the main purpose of world export in 2023-24, although this amount is 4.5 million tons less than the previous year, but he feels that number is too high. He believes that production numbers are 5 million tonnes too high for Canada and three to four million tonnes overplayed for Australia. On the other hand, he thinks that Argentina has performed poorly in the birth of its new product, and this is against the opinion of the USDA. In his opinion, the market in general is dire and it is going to collapse. Burnett also says that Ukraine's exports are likely to be lower than the USDA's forecast of 11 million tonnes. This is because Russia has backed out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which limited opportunity to export via other channels. If the wheat crop is indeed smaller than expected, and if Ukraine's exports are lower than expected, then the world could be facing a wheat shortage. This could lead to higher prices for bread, pasta, and other wheat-based foods. But if Ukraine targets Russian ports with a missile attack, it will destroy Russia's ability to export and the result will be the opposite.  

Final summary

As you read here, there are different opinions about the lack of wheat, in short, we know that:
  • A series of supply side threats is making it likely that the global wheat crop will be smaller than expected.
  • This could lead to higher prices for bread, pasta, and other wheat-based foods.
  • If the wheat market reacts to any of these risk factors along with this, so prices could rise even more if the wheat shortage materializes.
It is important to note that the wheat market is volatile, and it is impossible to say for sure whether or not there will be a wheat shortage. However, the risks are there, and consumers should be prepared Maybe it is necessary that this year the policy makers of the agricultural sector pay special attention to this strategic product, in order to be able to prevent the fluctuation of its price as much as possible in addition to supplying enough wheat. Resources:

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